
November 25, 2025
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FOMO is silly. It’s a tactic used by many businesses to sell you more stuff, but it’s gimmicky.
It’s done entrepreneurship a real disservice, too.
FOMO works by creating urgency. It does so by emphasizing the negative potential outcome of non-action. By definition, it creates fear. Anxiety. Panic.
Over time, it started to define the literature around entrepreneurship. Concepts like “blitzscaling” and “winner-takes-all” have become gospel.
But history doesn’t corroborate this story.
Sure, speed-to-market can be helpful inasmuch as it grants you a first-mover advantage. But it isn’t necessary. You don't need to be first to win. You need to be last.
Rather, you need to focus on becoming the last mover in your market.
Why being first is overrated (and often a liability)
Three massive companies that entered crowded markets late and won anyway
How to identify your “last meaningful upgrade”
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Weekly Insight

Despite what hustle culture wants you to think, being first is not the same as winning.
In a study of 50 product categories, market “pioneers” (those who were first) had a 47% failure rate and only 11% are still category leaders. In fact, the eventual winners tended to show up more than a decade later.
Let me show you three teensy-tiny companies that proved the first-mover advantage is overrated.
Google Search
By the late 1990s, web search was crowded. Yahoo, AltaVista, and Lycos dominated.
Yahoo started in 1994. AltaVista in 1995. Google launched in 1998 — years behind. Yet “Googling” has become synonymous with “searching.”
So, what happened?
When Google launched, they came out with something the others didn’t have: their PageRank algorithm. It ranked pages based on link structure, paired with an extremely simple interface.
While competitors’ nearly-identical search algorithms sat behind pages stuffed with ads and features, Google gave you a search box and… well, better results.
Friendster launched in 2002. MySpace went live in ‘03. Together, they proved people wanted online profiles, friends, and messaging.
When Facebook arrived in 2004, it wasn’t necessarily looking to topple the giants. It was restricted to Harvard students, and focused on real identity, clean design, and existing offline networks.
Then came the News Feed and real-name policy. These innovations increased engagement by making interactions feel more persistent. Within a few years, Facebook overtook MySpace and became the default social graph layer for much of the internet.
Shopify
Online stores existed long before Shopify. Merchants used custom carts, open-source tools, and early platforms like Yahoo Stores.
Upon its launch in 2006, Shopify had a singular goal: make it simple for non-technical merchants to get a functional store live.
It offered hosted infrastructure, templates, and apps that handled payments, shipping, and marketing without code. This shifted the founder's job from “wrestle with software” to “focus on product and sales.”
Shopify became the default choice for direct-to-consumer brands, and powers millions of stores.
The pattern
In no way, shape, or form do I mean to tell you it’s easy to do what these tech behemoths did. They entered established markets, where competitors had already proven demand and claimed territory.
But they made the last meaningful upgrade.
Google's was search relevance. Facebook's was real identity and structured networks. Shopify's was accessible infrastructure.
Each identified one thing the market needed fixed, fixed it definitively, and became the standard.
Speed mattered less than clarity about what made them the final solution.
📚 Related Reading
Competition is for losers (The Wall Street Journal)
Aggressive language, but the source of the “last mover” paradigm. The PayPal founder’s explanation on why you should avoid competition entirely by targeting a niche small enough to dominate it.The 7 powers: the foundations of business strategy (Heavybit)
Once you catch the wave, how do you stay on top? A deep dive into the specific mechanisms that turn a temporary advantage into a defensible offer.The half-truth of first-mover advantage* (Harvard Business Review)
Being first isn't a golden ticket; often, it's a trap. This study backs up my 47% failure rate statistic, proving that the pace of market evolution matters more than entry timing.
*Article is paywalled, which, yeah, is kind of annoying. But I think good research and journalism is worth paying for.
Intent to Action
If you’re pre-launch, stop trying to find ‘the thing no one has ever seen before.’ If you’re already in motion, focus on what you can do meaningfully better than others.
Figure out what would make you the last mover worth caring about.
Step 1: Map your market's maturity
Answer these three questions about your space:
Is this a single-home or multi-home market?
Single-home: customers typically use one solution (email provider, accounting software, CRM). Multi-home: customers regularly use multiple options (project management tools, note-taking apps, design software).
If you're entering a single-home market, you need to be definitively better at the core job. If it's multi-home, you can win by serving a specific use case exceptionally well.
Are there established players?
If yes: study what they do poorly. What do customers complain about? What workarounds have they built?
If no: you're in a nascent market. Speed matters more here, but you still need clarity on what makes your approach stick.
Are all customer segments well-served?
Look for gaps. Shopify won because existing tools served enterprise and developers, but ignored non-technical merchants. Facebook focused on college students with real identities when MySpace catered to anonymous, chaotic profiles.
Step 2: Define your “last meaningful upgrade”
Write one sentence that completes this frame:
“I'm making [category] work for [specific people] by [one thing competitors can't or won't do].”
Examples:
Google: “I'm making search work for everyone by ranking results based on relevance, rather than just keywords.”
Shopify: “I'm making ecommerce work for non-technical merchants by handling all the infrastructure they'd otherwise need developers for.”
Your upgrade can take different forms:
Technical superiority: You solve the core problem better (Google's PageRank).
Accessibility: You make something complex simple for a new audience (Shopify's hosted infrastructure).
Structural positioning: You change the rules of how the product works (Facebook requiring identity verification).
The key is picking one core upgrade you can defend and compound over years.
Step 3: Build one durability mechanism
Once you know your upgrade, protect it. There are myriad ways to do this, but some of the most common are:
Network effects: Make the product better as more people use it. Facebook's value grew with every friend who joined.
Brand clarity: Own a specific position in customers' minds. When someone thinks “non-technical ecommerce,” they think Shopify. When they think “professional identity online,” they think LinkedIn.
Deep integration: Offer your core users enough targeted features that they don't want to leave. Shopify does this by bundling hosted stores, integrated payments, and an app ecosystem specifically for non-technical merchants. Basically, make shopping around more work than it’s worth.
Pick one mechanism that fits your upgrade, then ask: what can I do to strengthen it?
If you're looking at integration depth, interview your power users and start systematically solving their issues. If you're building network effects, focus on connecting users.
It is true that the early bird gets the worm, but we often forget that the early worm gets eaten.
🧰 Toolbox
G2 | Find your “meaningful upgrade” by studying what competitors do poorly. Use G2 to filter competitor reviews to 1 and 2 stars. The complaints found here (e.g., “too complex,” “bad support”) are a great roadmap for your last-mover advantage.
Similarweb | This tool lets you see exactly who the “established players” are and where they get their traffic, helping you determine if you are entering a single-home or multi-home market.
SparkToro | Shows you exactly what your specific audience reads, watches, and listens to, allowing you to position your “final great development” exactly where they are already paying attention.

