
December 30, 2025
In partnership with

The early days of a business run on pure adrenaline. You have an idea and you go with it. Every decision comes from your gut. You know your customers because you talk to every single one of them.
Then success happens.
It’s intoxicating at first, but then… things get noisy. You have more customers than you can remember by name. Revenue grows, but so does complexity. Your crystal-clear intuition starts to get fuzzy.
I know that feeling. It’s the seeds of self-doubt and anxiety that arise from flying blind, once the plane gets bigger.
I promise: you aren't losing your touch. You're simply outgrowing your toolkit.
The skills that built the business are different from the skills required to scale it. You need a new way to see what's happening. A way to turn the noise back into signal.
This is where we embrace the numbers. Gut feeling got you here, but data propels you forward. It gives you your confidence back. Proves that your success is both real and repeatable.
Key takeaways:
While gut instinct is essential for the chaotic early stages of a startup, it becomes a bottleneck as the company grows. The skills required to start a business are fundamentally different from the skills required to scale it.
The main reason founders fail to adopt data-driven decisions is not because the tools are complex, but because of the psychological challenge of letting go of the “Renegade” identity that served us well in the beginning.
Rather than tracking vanity metrics or building complex dashboards, we should identify a single metric that addresses our most critical bottleneck, and optimize it relentlessly.
Sponsored
Turn disruption into opportunity
Today’s leaders face multiple, intersecting crises, from geopolitical conflicts to climate change and technological disruption. In this article, CEOs and Harvard Business School experts share six strategies for turning disruption into opportunity. You will learn:
How to anchor decisions in values, redefine success, energize your people, and more.
How to prepare to strengthen resilience and unlock growth.
Real-world lessons from Best Buy, Microsoft, Medtronic, AXA, Ford, and others.
Download HBS’ Executive Insights to unlock your ability to guide your organization with clarity and confidence, no matter how turbulent the environment.
Weekly Insight

Our story begins in a familiar setting. One person, a belief, and a series of experiments.
Lane Wagner knew the way coding was taught needed to change.
As a senior backend engineer, he saw people enter the workplace without the foundational knowledge they needed to move forward. Though there were myriad ways to learn this stuff, people didn’t. He launched Boot.dev to target this friction.
At launch, he had a simple, intuitive mission: make backend engineering accessible.
For two years, he built the product he would have wanted. He built an efficient library of content. Assumed that if the information was good, students would stick around.
He made it to $1k revenue per month, then the business got stuck. His intuition started the engine, but the car refused to move.
Wagner did some diagnostics, and determined there were two truths holding him back:
Users were dropping off halfway through courses.
Motivation, not information, was the source of his retention issue.
Finding the North Star
Armed with this knowledge, Wagner formed a hypothesis: learning to code should feel like playing a game.
He concentrated his efforts on proving out this hypothesis. To do so, he had to figure out the single most important metric to look at. He needed a North Star.
Rather than obsessively checking vanity metrics like total signups and non-recurring revenue, he obsessed over a single number: lesson completion rate.
He gamified the entire platform. Users earned XP, collected items, and leveled up. He tracked the specific “difficulty score” of every coding challenge. If the data showed users quitting at Level 5, he fixed Level 5.
He still leaned into his intuition, to set the theme. But, importantly, he let the data build the product.
The results were astounding. As a result of Wagner’s new quest, Boot.dev jumped from a $1k/mo side project to a $350k/mo juggernaut.
Wagner’s Founder skill leveled up. He had stopped guessing about what his users wanted, and started tracking what they actually did.
Use your gut to choose the mountain. Use the data to climb it.
Related Reading 📚
Why gut feeling is no longer enough (European CEO)
A great piece on why intuition is expensive. It highlights how giants like Nokia fell because they trusted their gut over the shifting data of the market.Mastering the North Star metric (Lizard Global)
How to pick the right metric based on your business model (e.g., “Transactions” for e-commerce vs. “Time Spent” for media).Data-informed, NOT data-driven (Ant Murphy)
A nuanced piece that argues “data-driven” is a trap because it removes human context. Rather, data should be used to have a conversation.
Intent to Action
I find that most early-stage founders adopt one of two approaches, depending on their personal inclination:
The Renegade. They believe their intuition about their business is infallible. They believe that following standard metrics has no value for them.
The Robot. They track everything, because they lack trust in their intuition. They fill dashboards with vanity metrics (likes, impressions, clicks) hoping the data will make the hard decisions for them.
If you’re a Renegade, I trust it’ll be difficult to persuade you to change until your business stagnates. If you’re a Robot (like me), I know you’ll have trouble letting go of the numbers that look good, even when they don’t move you forward.
In either case, I beseech you to put your ego aside if you want to scale.
You need to simplify.
Effective scaling requires ignoring 90% of your available data to focus intensely on the one metric that drives your business forward.
Use this simple Bottleneck Audit to identify yours.
1. Identify your current constraint
Every stalling business has a singular, most important root cause. Ask yourself where the chain breaks.
Visibility: You have a great product, but nobody sees it.
Conversion: People see it, but they don't buy it.
Leaky Bucket: People buy it, but they don't stay (or come back).
2. Assign your North Star
Once you identify the constraint, assign a single metric to it. This becomes your North Star for the next 90 days.
If your issue is Visibility, track Unique New Visitors.
If your issue is Conversion, track Sales Conversion Rate.
If your issue is a Leaky Bucket, track Churn Rate (or Repurchase Rate).
3. Get analog with it
Do not build a complex dashboard. Do not start convincing yourself that you need to subscribe to expensive analytics software.
Just write your North Star on a sticky note. Stick it to your monitor. Update it every Monday morning.
If a task moves that number, do it. If it doesn't, deprioritize it.
I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.
Toolbox 🧰
ProfitWell by Paddle | Automated revenue metrics
Category: Financial health
Use case: It connects directly to Stripe (or other payment processors) and gives you accurate MRR, Churn, and LTV data instantly.
Cost: Free (Metrics are free; they charge for churn recovery tools)
Microsoft Clarity | Heatmaps and session recording
Category: User behavior / UX
Use case: Google Analytics tells you what happened; Clarity tells you why. It provides heatmaps and session recordings so you can see exactly where users are rage-clicking or dropping off.
Cost: Free
Tally | Form builder
Category: Qualitative feedback
Use case: Sometimes data can't tell you why a number is down. Tally is the cleanest tool I’ve found for qualitative research. I use it to send automated “Why did you cancel?” emails to diagnose Leaky Bucket problems directly from the source.
Cost: Free (for like 99% of features)

